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These items caught my eye – 21 April 2013

Each week, I’ll pull together a range of items that have attracted my attention. I hope you will find the variety of topics covered both interesting and enlightening. Please remember to read the comments, as the information (and the links) contained in them often put the main article into context.. If you follow a site that is, maybe, a bit off the beaten track and think it would be of interest, please contact me and I’ll take a look.

Model-Data Comparison with Trend Maps: CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models vs New GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index

Posted on April 20, 2013 by Bob Tisdale

We’ve shown in numerous posts how poorly climate models simulate observed changes in temperature and precipitation. The models prepared for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) can’t simulate observed trends in:

  1. satellite-era sea surface temperatures globally or on ocean-basin bases,
  2. global satellite-era precipitation,
  3. global, hemispheric and regional land surface air temperatures, and
  4. global land plus sea surface temperatures when the data is divided into multidecadal warming and cooling periods.

In this post, we’ll compare the multi-model ensemble mean of the CMIP5-archived models, which were prepared for the IPCC’s upcoming AR5, and the new GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data. As you’ll recall, GISS recently switched sea surface temperature datasets for their LOTI product.

We have not presented trend maps in earlier comparisons of observed and modeled global land plus sea surface temperature anomalies, so, for the sake of discussion, we’ll provide them with this post. A comparison is shown in Figure 1 for the period of 1880 to 2012.

Bob Tisdale

The maps in Figure 1 show the modeled and observed linear trends for the full term of the GISS data, from 1880 to 2012. The CMIP5-archived simulations indicate stronger-than-observed polar-amplified warming at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The models also show a more uniform warming of the tropical Pacific, while the observations show little warming. There are a number of other regional modeling problems.

Click here to read the full article

Met Office: flapping on winter 2012/13, but mention SSW

Posted on April 20, 2013 by tchannon

The UK Met Office write “Why was the start to spring 2013 so cold?

March 2013 was the second coldest March in the UK record since 1910, and was associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A number of potential drivers may predispose the climate system to a state which accounts for these conditions.”

“Potential”, “may predispose”? Does it or doesn’t it, don’t they know?

Click here to read the full article

The Climate Circus Leaves Town

As traditional energy sources go from doom and gloom to boom.
Posted on Apr 21, 2013 by STEVEN F. HAYWARD

If you had told environmentalists on Election Day 2008 that four years later there’d be no successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol, that a Democratic Congress would not have enacted any meaningful climate legislation, that domestic oil production would be soaring even after a catastrophic offshore oil spill, and that the environmental community would be having a lively internal debate about whether it should support reviving nuclear power, most might have marched into the ocean to drown themselves. Yet that’s the state of play four months into President Obama’s second term.

Start with climate change. Early in March, the hacker or leaker of the two email caches from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia that rocked the climate science world in 2009 and again in 2011 released the remaining batch of material. The news produced barely a shrug even among climate skeptics, partly because the file contains 220,000 emails and documents (as opposed to about 1,000 in round one, and 5,000 in round two), making it impossible to review comprehensively. But it also appears unnecessary, as the climate change story has been overtaken by facts on the ground. Most significant: The pause in global warming—now going on 15 years—has become so obvious that many of the leading climate scientists are grudgingly admitting that global warming has stopped. James Hansen, who recently stepped down as NASA’s chief climate scientist to become a full-time private sector alarmist, is among those admitting that the recent temperature record has flatlined.

Click here to read the full article

Dana’s Planet

Posted on April 20, 2013 by Jeff Condon

Skeptical Science has another silly post up which attempts to pick at the edges of Nic Lewis’s climate sensitivity paper. They titled the critique “Climate Sensitivity Single Study Syndrome, Nic Lewis Edition” We all know that Skeptical Science is filled with those who are certain that oil money is brown and corrupts minds, while government money is green and makes scientists infallible. I normally ignore the site but WUWT pointed me to it and sometimes SS is a bit of fun:

It’s most important not to fall into the trap of thinking that any single study will overturn a vast body of scientific evidence, derived from many different sources of data (or as Andrew Revkin calls this, single-study syndrome).

It isn’t the quote which caught my attention but Dana’s ankle-biting point here forgets much more important quotes from much smarter people.

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.”– Albert Einstein

Nic’s study found a best probability climate sensitivity of 1.6C/doubling CO2, now there should be nothing inherently wrong with that number but the know-nothings at Skeptical Science realize that it falls below their preferred sky-is-falling-so-we-need-to-empower-the-UN-and-stop-capitalism goals. In other words, 1.6C would mean that there is no immediate doom on which to base their already ridiculously self-destructive political intent on. Shame that eh? So we get a bunch of emotion from their crowd.

Unfortunately for Dana (and the rest of the crowd there), there is a large body of evidence which has been piling up against these high climate sensitivity models. MMH10 for instance, showed that the mean of the primary climate models is running statistically outside of observation, Lucia has done a number of posts to that effect. Recently Roy Spencer put up a post showing the same problem.

Click here to read the full article

Coming Ice Age…According To Leading Experts, Global Mean Temperature Has Dropped 1°C Since 1990!

Posted on 21, April 2013 by P Gosselin

Climate science/renewable energy critic Rainer Hoffmann has researched the literature on mean global surface temperature.

Stunningly, he shows that something is not right with the figures coming from the world’s leading climate experts. The figures tell us the mean global surface temperature has dropped 1°C over the last 25 years. At that rate, we’ll be in an ice age by the year 2100!

Here’s a chronology of the global mean surface temperature figures from the leading experts over the last 25 years:

Click here to read the full article


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