No apologies for a tighter focus in this edition. The Internet has been mostly in thrall to the publication of the IPCC’s upcoming AR5. Despite the warmists’ attempts to deny the walk-back on climate sensitivity, it’s very clear that the obvious pause/stall in global temperatures over the last decade or so is causing them (IPCC) a problem. Maybe it’s time that the MSM’s more alarmist journalists took a step back, themselves, and re-considered their approach to climate reporting.
In this edition I’ve tried to bring in a range of items covering this subject. Many of these you may have already seen. The problem is that there hasn’t been any serious defence from the cAGW camp to offer as balance.
1: Leaked IPCC report discussed in the MSM; 2: Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda; 3: Terence Corcoran: The tide is rising on climate models and policies; 4:IPCC models getting mushy; 5: Schellnhuber: “Entire Complexity Of The Climate System Can Be Reduced To A Simple Linear Relationship.”; 6: Majority of climate change news stories focus on uncertainty, study finds; 7: A tipping point: Skepticism goes mainstream…; 8: Connie Hedegaard Echoes Tony Blair – “We Must Act, Even If Climate Science Is Wrong”; 9: AR5 – closer to the sceptic view.; 10: Dodgy statistics and IPCC Assessment Reports;
Please remember to read the comments, as the information (and the links) contained in them often put the main article into context..
Leaked IPCC report discussed in the MSM
Posted on September 15, 2013 by Judith Curry
I’m not sure what the IPCC expected when they leaked their report to ‘friendly’ journalists, but I suspect that it was not this article by David Rose,
People have been asking me to comment on the leaked IPCC Final Draft Summary for Policy Makers. Apparently someone in the IPCC made the Report available to ‘friendly’ journalists, as part of a strategy to brief them before the formal release of the Report. I have declined to comment until very recently, since I thought it was best to let the IPCC process play out. Now it is clear that the leaked report has made it into the hands of journalists that were not on the IPCC’s ‘friends’ list. I have now seen a copy of the SPM, and I provided comments to David Rose (and also to another journalist, not sure when that will air). – Click here to read the full article
Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda
Posted on September 10, 2013 by Larry Bell
Bummer! Now, just before members of the U.N.’s Church of the Burning Planet are scheduled to finalize their latest hellfire and brimstone sermon, a chilling development has occurred. A flood of blasphemous reports circulated among ranks of former faithful parishioners are challenging human-caused climate crisis theology.
On September 23 through 26, representatives of the world’s Environment Ministries will meet in Stockholm to agree on the final draft of a key portion of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers gospel which is expected, once again, to keep the political climate cauldron steaming. This Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is intended to be used by international ministers working to devise a new global treaty by 2015 to curb “climate change”. – Click here to read the full article
Terence Corcoran: The tide is rising on climate models and policies
Posted on September 17, 2013 by Terence Corcoran
As climate models and economics founder, both the politics and science of climate change are on the ropes at UN and across the globe
You don’t have to be a dyed in the wool climate skeptic to conclude that the great United Nations climate policy regime is in serious trouble. Even extreme greens are worried. Greenpeace recently felt compelled to issue a long attack denouncing “the denial machine” that seems to be winning the policy and science debate. Titled “Dealing in Doubt,” the Greenpeace operatives — still fighting the last war — blamed Exxon-Mobil for funding a denier industry. In Washington, the Climate Reality Project, an Al Gore joint, has a campaign called “Draw the Line on Denial” under way.
Tied in part to the Keystone pipeline issue, it has major demos and/or social media campaigns planned for tomorrow in advance of House of Representatives committee investigating the economic costs to the U.S. economy of climate policies. – Click here to read the full article
IPCC models getting mushy
Posted on September 17, 2013 by Ross McKitrick
In the next five years, the global warming paradigm may fall apart if the models prove worthless
There has been a lot of talk lately about the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, and whether it will take into account the lack of warming since the 1990s. Everything you need to know about the dilemma the IPCC faces is summed up in one remarkable graph.
The figure nearby is from the draft version that underwent expert review last winter. It compares climate model simulations of the global average temperature to observations over the post-1990 interval. During this time atmospheric carbon dioxide rose by 12%, from 355 parts per million (ppm) to 396 ppm. The IPCC graph shows that climate models predicted temperatures should have responded by rising somewhere between about 0.2 and 0.9 degrees C over the same period. But the actual temperature change was only about 0.1 degrees, and was within the margin of error around zero. In other words, models significantly over-predicted the warming effect of CO2 emissions for the past 22 years. – Click here to read the full article
Schellnhuber: “Entire Complexity Of The Climate System Can Be Reduced To A Simple Linear Relationship.”
Posted on September 17, 2013 by P Gosselin
Below Rainer Hoffmann presents Part 3 of his “10 Inconvenient Truths About Professor Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber“. I wrote about Part 1 here, and Part 2 focused on Schellnhuber’s claiming that climate models provide projections, forecasts, scenarios, prognoses, depending on the situation being served at hand.
Part 3 below shows a whopper: Schellnhuber claiming that the complex, chaotic climate system can all be reduced down to a “simple linear relationship” with CO2 emissions.
– Click here to read the full article
Majority of climate change news stories focus on uncertainty, study finds
Posted on 18 September 2013 by Fiona Harvey
About eight in 10 stories contain some discussion of uncertainties and risk, according to Oxford analysis
The uncertainties of climate change science have become a major focus of media coverage on the subject, a new study shows.
About eight in 10 stories on climate change and related scientific research contain some discussion of uncertainties and risk, according to a report from Oxford University. Roughly eight in 10 also refer in some way to the disasters that are likely to result from unchecked global warming and greenhouse gas emission rises.
The remaining uncertainties – such as the sensitivity of the climate to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations, and the roles played by major parts of the Earth’s systems such as the absorption of carbon and heat by the oceans – will come under the spotlight next week, when leading climate scientists gather in Stockholm to hammer out the final details of the long-awaited fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). – Click here to read the full article
A tipping point: Skepticism goes mainstream…
Posted on September 18th, 2013 by JoNova
Worldwide momentum is shifting. With David Rose’s article in the Daily Mail, Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal (“We got it wrong on warming“), and the excellent article by Ross McKitrick in the Financial Post the skeptical message is going mainstream.
The war is by no means over, but the race in media coverage has stepped up a notch. Now, for the first time there is an element of competition, serious newspapers don’t want to be left behind. Editors have realized the skeptics have a case.
In Australia the grand failure of the carbon tax in the recent election is still ripping through the news, the institutions, and the mood. It was a categorical defeat. From comments and emails I know this event was watched around the world. – Click here to read the full article
Connie Hedegaard Echoes Tony Blair – “We Must Act, Even If Climate Science Is Wrong”
Posted on September 17, 2013 by Tory Aardvark
The next UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report AR5 is due to be published on September 27th, though leaked copies of the report have been around for a few weeks.
The report shows that earlier estimates of Anthropogenic Global Warming were wrong, the computer models upon which the junk science is built failed to take into account natural variability, and more importantly the sacred Green models failed to predict the 17 year standstill in global warming. Then there is the failure to predict the record Arctic sea ice this year, when the Arctic was supposed to be ice free any day now.
The damage to the Green meme continues unabated as the IPCC are now aware that the Medieval Warming Period really did happen across the planet, which makes yet another nonsense of Michael E Mann‘s hockey stick which according to the Big Green propaganda machine is “Now One Of The Most Trusted And Widely Recognized Graphs In All Of Science“ – Click here to read the full article
AR5 – closer to the sceptic view.
Posted on September 17, 2013 by Scottish Sceptic
I was reading Judith Curry’s Leaked IPCC report discussed in the MSM and wondered how many of our points in the sceptic view have now been adopted by the “science is settled and what the sceptics think is lunacy” brigade. It turns out that in all but one area mentioned by Judith they have moved substantially in our direction. Which makes it all the more bizarre that they INCREASE their certainty that natural variation did not cause the 20th century warming.
As such it seems that a lot of good work is going to be utterly wasted because I cannot see this report being taken seriously by any but the lunatic fringe in the media. – Click here to read the full article
Dodgy statistics and IPCC Assessment Reports
Posted on September 17, 2013 by Anthony Watts
Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
In the 19th century, British Prime Ministers used to say there were “lies, damned lies, and statistics”. In the 21st century, we may say there are frauds, serious frauds, and IPCC Assessment Reports.
Recall, for instance, the notorious graph in the Fourth Assessment Report that falsely indicated that the rate of global warming is accelerating and we are to blame. Using the same statistical dodge, one can show that a sine-wave has a rising trend. – Click here to read the full article